Do you know which NFL team historically has been the most successful on Day 1 of the Draft? How about the worst? Did you know your favorite NFL team is nearly three times as likely to draft a bust with their first round pick than a future Hall of Famer?

Though his NFL career never really panned out, he did rock an awesome mullet.
We went through the first round of every NFL Draft for 15 straight years, one player at a time, to identify which teams have proven to the best (and worst) at making their first round selections. Every player from 1990’s pick #1 (Jeff George) to 2004’s #32 (Ben Watson) has been poked and prodded by our crack crew and rated on the Bossanova Super Deluxe Football Player Rating Scale for Kids Who Can’t Read Good (or the B.S.D.F.P.R.S.F.K.W.C.R.G. for short.)
Here’s how our rating system works: Every player chosen in the first round between 1990 and 2004 was assigned a point value, 1 through 5. A player with a 5 ranking is a Hall of Fame caliber player, and ranking of 1 is a player who stuck in the League for a 3 or more years, but never truly contributed to his team in any meaningful way.
And then there are the dreaded “busts”. A player deemed to be a bust is given a ranking of -1. Our thinking is, any player taken with a first round pick who absolutely bombs has a negative impact on his team for years to come. Negative impact, negative point.
So once every player has been graded, we add up the total number points for each first rounder by team, and divide by the total number of picks. This gives us a per team mean in our 1 through 5 range.

Wha happen???
So for clarity’s sake:
5 = Hall of Famer
4 = Perennial Pro Bowler (4 or more Pro Bowls)
3 = Multi Season Starter, 8+ Years in the League
2 = Majority Starter, 4+ Years in the League
1 = Reserve Player
-1 = Ryan Leaf
So without further ado, here is how it shook out:

The Ravens are the clear cut winner - although their sample size is significantly smaller than most of the other teams as the Ravens have only been making picks since 1996. But strengthening their cause is what they were able to pull off in their Draft, by selecting Jonathan Ogden AND Ray Lewis. Not too shabby when you can reel in two future HOFers in one round of picks.

Futer HOFer, Ray Lewis
The Colts also have a very solid resume of picks - their mean score of 2.933 factors in two disasters with Steve Emtman and Trev Alberts. The Colts can take credit for at least 3 future Hall of Famers in Marshall Faulk, Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, with stalwarts like Reggie Wayne, Tarik Green and Edgerrin James in the HOF discussion.
As a ‘Skins fan, I was pleased to learn my boys aren’t at the bottom of the barrel (at least when it comes to drafting first rounders) - that honor is saved for Da Bears. Curtis P. Enis, Michael Haynes, Cade McNown, Rashaan (that marijuana make you lazy) Salaam and Stan Thomas are first rounders of note selected by Chicago.
The Eagles have a decent laundry list of losers to their credit, as well. The best by far though has to be Bernard Williams. For those of you who don’t remember Bernard, you’re not alone. Bernard was an offensive tackle out of Georgia, selected 14th overall by Philadelphia. He actually started all 16 games his rookie year, but was then banned from the NFL after failing 15 drug tests. 15.
The Bucs had a pretty decent first round in 1995 when they selected Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks. And while our system found nearly three times as many busts (40) as sure fire future Hall of Famers (15), we also found 58 perennial Pro Bowlers. A handfull of these players have a decent shot of winding up in Canton, depending on how their careers finish up.

5. 5 dollar. 5 dollar foot long.
25% of our busts were quarterbacks (WARNING!!! Redskins fans hoping to land Mark Sanchez - ABORT!)
Some of the notable no gos include Akili Smith, Andre Ware, Rick Mirer, David Klingler and Dan McGuire.
Running backs also have a high bust rate. Lawerence Phillips, Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter and Enis are famous flameouts.
And the higher a bust is taken, history will remember them even bustier. Steve Emtman, Ki-Jana Carter and Tim Couch were all selected first overall. Mirer, Heath Shuler, Akili Smith, Andre Wadsworth and Charles Rogers were all top three picks.
So what should NFL execs take away from this? I dunno. Trade down out of the first round maybe? Or call Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome for advice? Whatever they do, it’s the fans that have to remember there is no such thing a “sure thing”, even in the first round.
Have fun watching the Draft this weekend. And don’t be afraid to let us know why we’re wrong (or much more likely, why we’re so awesome.)