I wanted to get this down on paper (virtual or otherwise) before the brand spankin’ new MLB season got too far gone. Admittedly we’re only about 18 hours in, but when my projections all prove to be astoundingly accurate, I don’t want the haters to have any excuses.
I don’t pretend to follow the Central and West Coast teams nearly as close as I do the teams on the Right Coast, so I won’t bother speculating on how they’ll finish. I do think the Dodgers are the class of the NL West, as our the Los Angeles Angels of Southwest San Bernardino by way of the PCH in the American League.
The Cubs should run away with the NL Central, but they are still the Cubs so keep an eye out for them to find a new and exciting way to screw over their fans. The AL Central should just disband now, ‘cuz all those teams suck. My guess is somewhere between 85 and 89 wins will win that division. Off the top of my head, I’ll guess Minnesota will take it. And look for Kansas City to be much better.
But all the teams that matter are located on the good side of the Mighty Mississippi. In the NL East, the Mets look to have solidified their craptastic bullpen by adding JJ Putz and F-Rod (tee-hee!) The Phillies are returning with the same basic team that won the whole shabang last year, so it would be pretty dumb to pick against them. So I’ll take the Mets to win their division.
Speaking of the Phillies’ run to the World Series last year, do you think they’ll send Billy Wagner a Championship ring? That guy gagged more last year in save situations than Joe at the Grabby Awards (Google it.)
Anyway, I’ll go Mets, Phillies, Braves, Nationals and Marlins in the NL East. The Nats still stink, but they have a few young pieces, and a great ownership group comitted to building a team from the ground up. The Marlins arguably have the best player in all of baseball in Hanley Ramirez, but he will be wasted on a team with nothing else around him. Don’t be surprised if the Marlins move him before the trade deadline this year.
When we start talking about the American League East, my F-Rod starts to take notice.
As an unabashed Red Sox fan, it would be easy for me to say my boys will run away with the division. They have a ton of starting pitcher depth. Brad Penny is penciled in as the 5th starter, with John Smoltz set to be ready in late May or early June. They also have Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden waiting for the call in Pawtucket. The Sox also sured up their ‘pen by signing Takashi Saito and trading for Ramon Ramirez.
Offensively they return their starting 9 from the end of last year. Spots 1 thru 7 are solid. Varitek’s bat speed, in the 8 hole, is suspect but he’s still a decent situational hitter. Jed Lowrie and Julio Lugo (once he’s healthy) will most likely platoon at short and hit 9th. Lowrie is versatile enough to play second and third, too.
The bench is solid, if not dazzling. Rocco Baldelli will spell JD Drew in right against a lot of left handed pitchers, and Mark Kotsay will play first (and Youkilis will move to third) to give Mike Lowell the occasional day off.
I think this is a good team, top to bottom. But (and I REALLY, REALLY, REALLY hate to admit this) I think the Yankees have more firepower. The Yankees have all the pieces to score 1,000 runs this year, and that’s considering A-Roid will miss the first month.
I think the key to the Yankees season will be the guys who bridge the gap between their starting pitchers and Mariano Rivera. Sabathia and Wang will eat up a ton of innings (fat joke intended), but I’ve never been overly impressed with AJ Burnett, Joba Chamberlain is not a 7 or 8 inning pitcher yet, and Andy Pettitte isn’t anymore.
If the Yankees can have a couple of guys step up and fill the void in the bullpen, it should be their division to lose.
Tampa had a amazing season last year. I don’t think I was alone waiting for the bottom to fall out for them, but it just never happened. Everything went the Rays way and they bring back that young nucleus from last year and should be mentioned in the race in the AL East. I just don’t see it happening, though. They will have big targets on their backs this year, and won’t be able to sneak up on anyone. And they can’t run a pitcher out to the mound who you know has the ability to absolutely shut down the opposition (like Sabathia, Josh Beckett or Roy Halladay.)
I see it shaking out like this. The Yankees and Sox will go back and forth for the division title for the better part of the season, with the Yankees pulling away late in August or so. The Sox will win around 95 games, and as such have little competion for the Wild Card. Tampa will be solid, but the stars won’t align for them like they did last year. I think Tampa and Toronto will scuffle for the third spot and the Orioles will finish in the cellar again.
But a quick note on the Orioles; their offense should be pretty good. Their outfield will be formidable in the next couple of years - Markakis is already a stud, and Felix Pie and Adam Jones should be close to breaking out. The O’s just don’t have ANY pitching, and they won’t be able to keep pace in the toughest division in baseball.
So there you have it. If you happen to rout for a non-East Coast team, it sucks for you. I don’t want to make any World Series predictions just yet, but I bet the team that wins it all is based in the EST.
Thoughts? Lemme have it below.
BTW, I know Francisco Rodriguez is called K-Rod; I called him F-Rod to set up a joke I used later in the post. Get over it.